Killian Tillie Scouting Report

CONTEXT

  • 19 years old, turns 20 only next March
  • Listed at six-foot-10, 230 pounds
  • 17.8 points per 40 minutes on 47.6% effective shooting at the 2017 FIBA World Championships U19 in Cairo, Egypt last month
  • Tournament wasn’t necessarily the best that it could bebut still featured about a dozen guys who will for sure get a look in the NBA in the near future
  • France placed seventh in the tournament after winning the 2016 FIBA European Championships U18 last December but this was not really the same group, with Frank Ntilikina and Sekou Doumbouya missing the event due to injury
  • 25.2% usage rate, according to RealGM: participated in the shot creation process from the post and on pick-and-drive’s but not as a modern big wing who can draw an opposing big 25-feet away from the basket and force him to guard his drives out in space
  • Logged some minutes at center in instances when France was trying to come from behind but mostly played as an old pure power forward
  • May still develop into a bruising type – has the frame for that – but relied mostly on his skills package
  • Did very well on the defensive glass and showed excellent instincts picking up steals in volume, which led to the second best defensive rating on the team at 84.8

DEFENSE

  • Attentive to his rotation responsibilities coming off the weak-side in help-defense; not an explosive leaper off two feet, blocking just one shot in 195 minutes, but has developed dexterity using verticality to challenge shots at the basket effectively
  • Had the lateral quickness to keep pace with stretch big men one-on-one at this level of competition and uses his hands well to make plays on the ball – averaged two steals per 40 minutes
  • Coordinated enough to closeout, run shooter off his shot, slide laterally to keep pace with him off the bounce
  • Coordinated and agile enough to be an asset hedging-and-recovering against the pick-and-roll
  • Not an asset to switch onto smaller players regularly; lacks lateral quickness to stay in front of these types out on an island and isn’t quick enough to block them from behind
  • Attentive to his boxout responsibilities and chased the ball off the rim very well against this level of competition despite lack of explosive leaping ability; collected 27.3% of opponents’ misses when he was on the floor, which ranked sixth in the tournament

OFFENSE

  • Can grab a defensive rebound and bring the ball up the court but isn’t the sort of modern big wing who feels comfortable initiating offense himself
  • Did about half of his shot creation from the post: doesn’t play with enough physicality to bully his way into deep post position consistently, which makes it not uncommon to see him get pushed out
    • Didn’t show a particularly diverse set of post moves, more often than not relying on simple turnaround hooks, and showed no power moves – earning just 2.6 free throws per 40 moves
  • Looked his best as a scoring threat on pick-and-drive’s against a scrambling defense; proved himself coordinated enough to catch, take a dribble and launch floaters or make a kick-out pass to the outside
  • Loves floaters, lives to take them; floaters off jump-stops, floaters off spin moves, runners. Has very nice touch on them, shot 51.2% on 68 two-pointers, despite a steady diet of these looks that tend to be low percentage on average
  • Doesn’t roll hard to the basket in pick-and-roll; isn’t an option to play above the rim as a target for lobs and can’t go up strong off two feet in a crowd
  • Took a pick-and-pop jumper from mid-range that looked good and also flashed a quick pop-to-three long bomb off faking to be preparing himself to set a screen, aside from a three-pointer relocating to an open spot around the wing
  • But for the most part was a very reluctant outside shooter; release looks fluid and reasonably quick for someone his size and he lets it go from a high point but takes some time to load his shot – averaging just three three-point attempts per 40 minutes in Cairo, missing 12 of his 15 attempts
  • Surprised in the offensive glass, collecting 11% of France’s misses
  • Tremendous asset to help facilitate offense, assisting on 21.2% of France’s scores when he was on the floor; excellent instincts on post-to-post passing, ball skills to act as a hub on dribble hand-offs, quick thinking on catch-and-go’s from the post, can make entry passes over the top from the perimeter when his team inverts the offense
    • It came at the cost of him turning it over on 20.6% of his plays; not some screaming absurdity given his high usage rate and assist rate but not something to be ignored either

Editor’s Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of ‘Basketball Scouting’. More of his work can be found here or at RealGM, where he is a regular contributor. He can be followed on twitter as @rafael_uehara

Advertisements

Zach Collins Scouting Report

(First posted at RealGM)

JUNE, 2ND, 2017

CONTEXT

Zach Collins was a McDonald’s All American last year but he was, for the most part, an unknown commodity entering the season as far as draft prospects are concerned.

Rivals ranked him 21st in the 2016 high school class and there wasn’t a lot of expectation the seven-footer would get a prominent role right away at Gonzaga, with stalwart Przemek Karnowski returning for a fifth year of eligibility and highly touted transfer Johnathan Williams becoming available after sitting out a year.

He was even expected to face some competition for the third big spot in the rotation, with Killian Tillie and Rui Hachimura – two players who have impressed in FIBA junior events – also joining the program.

But Collins did break out immediately and while his playing time was still limited (just 17.3 minutes per game) due to the two veterans ahead of him in the pecking order and his constant foul trouble, the 19-year-old showed enough promise in his one year of college basketball to end up ranked 12th in Draft Express’ top 100.

Collins is certainly talented but he was also fortunate to join a team that put him in the best possible position to succeed. In a time where post play is getting increasingly devalued by the day, Gonzaga got a quarter of its shots coming out of the low block – as well chronicled by Sports Illustrated’s Luke Winn.

With his 232 pounds well distributed over his seven-foot frame, Collins has an advanced physical profile for someone his age and was able to earn good position with his back to the basket from the get-go, though just as important was the fact that Gonzaga was a team run by veteran guards – with Jordan Matthews, Silas Melson, Josh Perkins and Nigel Williams-Goss entering the season with a combined 271 games of college basketball experience under their belts.

Collins did well demanding the ball but those ball-handlers did just as well getting it to him and that system empowered him – as he posted a 24.9% usage rate[1].

POST SCORING

With the ball in his hands, Collins showed a lot of potential as a one-on-one post scorer.

He has fluid footwork and proved himself able to finish with either hand on turnaround hooks – averaging 1.13 points per possession on 128 plays out of the post[2]. Collins also flashed the ability to nail short turnaround jumpers leaning into his defender and face-up jumpers when he got to rise uncontested – converting 55.6% of his 45 two-point jumpers[3].

Collins still has plenty of room to improve operating with his back to the basket, though. He didn’t show much of anything in terms of getting around his man on short face-up drives or being able to straight up bully his man with power moves and has only a so-so turnaround, fadeaway jumper at this point. He also hasn’t yet developed dexterity with shot fakes and up-and-under’s. There’s not a lot of polish or diversity to how he goes about creating his shots.

With what he’s shown as of now, there isn’t enough evidence to envision Collins as the next Donatas Motiejunas in the pros but there are plenty of encouraging signs that he will be or will eventually become a good enough post scorer to prevent opponents from switching smaller players onto him with impunity.

OTHER AREAS OF OFFENSE

Collins also struggled when doubled or crowded in the post and didn’t show much ability to create for others. He proved himself able to execute pre-arranged reads on high-low sets but for the most part was not a real asset as a hub to help facilitate offense out of the elbows or the high post – turning it over on 17.8% of his possessions and recording just 16 assists in his 673 minutes.

Collins flashed some promise as a floor spacer, hitting 10 of his 21 three-pointers, even as the most valuable kind of stretch big, the one able to hit shots out of the pick-and-pop and open a direct driving lane at the point of attack. But that’s mostly potential for now. He has a slow release, only feels comfortable pulling the trigger when he is wide open and didn’t show true NBA distance in his attempts.

Collins also doesn’t yet have the ball skills to pump fake and attack a closeout, so he’ll be only a shoot it-or-move it guy when he spots up on the outside in the immediate future.

Because he’s a white big who has taken some jumpers here and there, there’s a general predisposition to think of Collins as a “skills” player on offense but reality is there is a higher chance he will end up earning his money due to his athletic ability on energy plays around the basket.

Collins didn’t prove himself an alley-oop threat exploding off the ground in a crowd out diving down the lane, in part because Gonzaga didn’t play a whole lot of spread pick-and-roll, but he can play above the rim as a target for lobs sitting behind the defense at the dunker’s spot.

Collins showcased soft hands catching the ball on the move cutting to the basket on side pick-and-rolls and post-to-post passes by Karnowski, can go up strong off two feet to finish with power and has nice touch on non-dunk finishes as well – converting 70.9% of his 141 shots at the rim.

That said, he does not have elite length for someone his size, so he’s more likely to be a basket-level finisher in traffic rather than someone who can elevate for some unexpected Pau Gasol-type dunks fully extending his reach when he can’t get to gather himself before going up.

Also due to that below average seven-foot-one wingspan, Collins doesn’t rebound outside of his area often but he does go hard after misses on the offensive glass – collecting 12% of Gonzaga’s misses when he was on the floor and averaging 3.8 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes pace adjust, which ranked him eighth among prospects in Draft Express’ top 100.

Because he was such a constant threat around the basket area, aside from his prolific post scoring at that level, Collins also enjoyed 8.8 foul shots per 40 minutes.

INTERIOR DEFENSE

Collins’ top skill on other end is his mobility. He is well coordinated for a true seven-footer and showed very good quickness moving around the floor to make himself a constant presence near the ball. Collins has also impressed with his recognition skills and rotations, proving himself attentive to his help-defense responsibilities and challenging a lot of shots at the basket.

He can get off the ground off two feet quite well and used his nine-foot-three standing reach expertly to average 4.0 blocks per 40 minutes pace adjusted, which led the Draft Express’ top 100, though perhaps as impressive is how just as adept at using verticality to alter shots he is at such a young age.

That said, those block numbers might inflate how elite a rim protector prospect Collins truly is. There were also a startling amount of instances where dribble drivers were able to finish through him even though he was well positioned between the finisher and the basket.

Perhaps if he grows a little bit more into his body, Collins might become a more intimidating, tougher presence to finish over or around and then the effectiveness of his contests will meet the sheer volume of shots he challenges, though he also needs to improve his ability to do so without fouling.

Collins is very foul prone at this point of his development, also in large part because he bites on so many shot fakes when he is defending the post, leaving his feet and making himself vulnerable to getting contact drawn  – averaging 6.3 personal fouls per 40 minutes last season.

Aside from the all the fouling, his post defense is generally suspect. He got tougher towards the end of the season fronting the post, showing some encouraging signs in the North Carolina game, but for the most part doesn’t play with a lot of force denying deep position or holding his ground, though this hasn’t been much of an issue on the glass, where Collins, often attentive to his boxout responsibilities, has been no pushover – collecting 23.2% of opponents’ misses when he’s been on the floor.

ABOVE THE FOUL LINE

But while defending close to the basket is still a very meaningful part of a big man’s job, what helps him stand out in the pace-and-space era is how much flexibility he offers defending high way out in the perimeter and Collins is tough to project in this department.

Though he can’t bend his knees a whole lot to get low in a stance, Collins has shown very appealing lateral quickness to slide side-to-side and keep smaller players in front when he’s picked them up on switches out on an island. That said, the level of competition in the NBA is higher than the one in the West Coast Conference, so it’s questionable how much of that will hold up in the pro’s.

Given his agility, he will probably be more commonly deployed as a show-and-recover big defender on high pick-and-rolls. Because of his nimbleness, it’s enticing to think of Collins as being able to go way high above the foul line and getting back to his man well enough for his team to guard these plays two-on-two but his lack of elite length might ultimately prevent that from being the case regularly.

[1] According our stats’ database

[2] According to research by Draft Express’ Mike Schmitz

[3] According to hoop-math

Editor’s Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of ‘Basketball Scouting’. More of his work can be found here or at RealGM, where he is a regular contributor. He can be followed on twitter as @rafael_uehara

Domantas Sabonis Scouting Report

(First posted at RealGM)

Differently than Poeltl, there are very few concerns over Sabonis’ toughness.

He’s proven able to get physical boxing out bigger players to protect the defensive glass, collecting 29.3% of opponents’ misses last season – according to our stats database.

He’s also well-coordinated for someone his size, able to move fluidly in space.

His six-foot-10 wingspan is below average in the context of his six-foot-10 height and he can’t play above the rim as a shot blocker, blocking just 43 shots in his 74 appearances at Gonzaga, but figures to add value in pick-and-roll defense via switch-ability. Sabonis is agile enough to exchange into smaller players; able to keep pace on straight line drives and containing dribble penetration through contact.

But other than rebounding (he collected 13% of Gonzaga’s misses in his college career), there’s a lot of doubt over how Sabonis can make an impact in a half-court offense.

He was a pretty good post scorer in college but mostly based on bullying opponents, which is unlikely carry to the pro level, lacking the sort of dynamism that would command him post touches in that league.

Sabonis has good hands to catch the ball on the move and nice touch on non-dunk finishes but can’t play above the rim as a constant target for lobs against a set defense, meaning he’ll probably be just a so-so scorer in the pick-and-roll.

He’ll probably need to develop into a skilled big to make a significant contribution, which is not off the ball as he’s proven able to go from the top of the key to the rim off the dribble when he catches the opponent napping, exhibited nifty passing skills from time to time and flashed the ability to hit open catch-and-shoots from the outside.

Editor’s Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of ‘Basketball Scouting’. More of his work can be found here or at RealGM, where he is a regular contributor. He can be followed on twitter as @rafael_uehara

Domantas Sabonis Scouting Report

(Originally posted at Upside & Motor)

It was always a possibility Domantas Sabonis would go to college in the United States, since he declined to earn a salary in Spain specifically in order to maintain his eligibility. But it was nonetheless surprising when the son of the great Lithuanian legend confirmed he would be joining the Gonzaga Bulldogs for next season, after he was just given 521 minutes of quality pro level experience with Unicaja Malaga in the Spanish league and the Euroleague at age 17. In an interview with FIBA’s YouTube channel, he revealed the option to play for Mark Few’s coaching staff was made with the intention to work on his individual skill-set.

But before moving to Spokane, Sabonis led the Lithuanian national team to a seventh-place finish in the FIBA European championships U18, which ended on Sunday. And he was dominant in the aspects you would expect someone who already played against grown men to be against teenagers. Listed at six-foot-eight and 215 pounds, Sabonis was an elite athlete for this level of competition, which translated best in transition, in the post and on the glass.

He was able to establish deep position on the block due his quickness navigating the baseline in order to set up on the opposite side of where he was when the play began and also due to his core strength on straight post ups with his back to the basket. Sabonis displayed very good footwork and decent touch to score at rim level but struggled against Croatia and Serbia, two teams with elite size, which lowered his efficiency at the rim to an underwhelming 61.4% on 57 attempts. He strongly favored finishing with his left hand; hooking over his left shoulder or laying it in when he turned left and throwing a little push-up shot when he opted to go right.

Sabonis drew fouls at a very high rate, averaging 5.4 per 28 minutes, but didn’t materialize it into a real significant plus for Lithuania’s scoring as he made just 23 of his 40 free throws. Though left-handed, he shoots his free throws with his right hand. He impressed with his passing, especially out of the low post to the weak side, and averaged 3.6 assists per 28 minutes, which was well above average among positional peers. He was a really impactful force on the glass thanks to his general activity and edge in athleticism against the average competition, averaging three offensive rebounds per 28 minutes, which ranked sixth in the tournament.

Sabonis looked great in the open court, sprinting very fluidly, and even flashed the ability to lead the break. On the pick-and-roll, he was a good screener who looked to draw contact and showed good hands to catch the ball on the move but didn’t really play above the rim. Sabonis proved himself a good face-up driver at this level, with long strides attacking from the perimeter and looking to dribble the ball low in traffic. But he struggled with his handle and passing on the move, turning it over 3.2 times per 28 minutes, with those two aspects accounting for 16 of his 29 giveaways in the play-by-play data.

His jump-shot was a legit weapon against the soft defense played at this level. Sabonis gets very little elevation and has a slow release but hit a high rate when left open. Like most left handed shooters, he doesn’t angle his body straight towards the basket but rather on a 45 degree angle. He hit 47% of his 49 jump-shots, including four of 10 from three-point range.
His core strength translated into tough post defense, even against players with bigger frames such as Marko Arapovic. And he dominated the glass on that end as well, leading the tournament with nine rebounds per 28 minutes. But Sabonis wasn’t a particularly impactful player on defense. He flashed his athleticism on a few blocks and playing the passing lanes to manufacture turnovers but was unable to anchor the talent around him into an above average unit, as Lithuania allowed the sixth most points in the 16-nation tournament.

Editor’s Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of ‘Basketball Scouting’. More of his work can be found here or at Upside & Motor, where he is a regular contributor. He can be followed on twitter as @rafael_uehara.