Ethan Chargois Scouting Report

CONTEXT

  • Ethan Chargois was not ranked in the 2017 high school class[1].
  • Through 19 games this season, the six-foot-nine stretch big has averaged 19.5 points per 40 minutes on 60% true shooting and posted a 22.4 player efficiency rating[2].
  • Southern Methodist has deployed the 19-year-old[3] as a center who spaces the floor out of the three-point line on one end and offers some semblance of rim protection on the other. In that role the freshman has been very effective on both ends, despite lacking elite height for the position.
  • He’s unranked on ESPN’s top 100.

OFFENSE

  • 44.4% of his shots have been launched from three-point range, as Chargois has shown the ability to not only space the floor as a spot-up shooter but also taken catch-and-shoot jumpers on the move coming out of the pick-and-pop and as the trailer in transition.
    • He has a compact release and a quick trigger for someone his size, catching it on the hop and displaying decent touch.
    • He’s nailed 40.3% of his 67 three-point shots this season, at a pace of 6.2 such attempts per 40 minutes, though his 65.4% foul shooting over 52 free throws is a head-scratcher.
  • Other than that, Chargois has gotten the ball in the post and in the elbow on low horns sets as well.
    • He uses power moves to burn smaller players on switches but flashed the traits of a very skilled post game against bigger players, using shot-fakes and head-fakes to work his defender out of position and finish around them on up-and-under’s.
    • Chargois can take his man off the bounce on straight line drives, lacking an explosive first step but using the strength in his 235-pound frame[4] to maintain his balance through contact and high-stepping to weave his way through traffic. He lacks lift off one foot to go up strong at the basket but flashed a running floater to score over length from the in-between area and showed nice touch on lefty finger-roll finishes.
    • Prior to the game against Tulane, Chargois had converted his 57 attempts at the rim at a 70.2% clip, with a third of his 40 makes at the basket unassisted[5].
  • He’s proven himself an asset to help facilitate offense on dribble hand-offs in the perimeter or scanning the floor out of the low post and figures to be an option passing out of the short roll if put in that position too – assisting on 10.5% of Southern Methodist’s scores over his 433 minutes this season.
  • He is not a target to play above the rim as a target for lobs, lacking lift to go up strong off two feet in a pinch, and his impact in the offensive glass has been marginal.

DEFENSE

  • Chargois is pretty nimble for someone his weight and can be somewhat effective defending the pick-and-roll around the foul line but isn’t suited to pick up smaller players on switches or match up with shooting big men.
    • He has a couple of lateral slides in him to show-and-recover well against the pick-and-roll, able to contain the ball-handler and prevent him from getting downhill or turning the corner right away.
      • Southern Methodist ranks 22nd in the country in lowest percentage of shots allowed at the basket[6].
    • But he can get exposed backpedalling and doesn’t act as a deterrent for passes over the top.
    • Chargois bends his knees to get down in a stance in individual defense in the perimeter but lacks lateral quickness to stay in front of smaller players for more than a slide or two.
    • His closeouts are also ineffective, as he doesn’t seem to have above average length to contest catch-and-shoot jumpers effectively and isn’t quick enough to run shooters off their shots.
  • Chargois has shown good attention to his rotation responsibilities stepping up to the front of the basket as the last line of defense and coming off the weak-side in help defense.
    • He’s shown a knack for making plays on the ball – averaging 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks per 40 minutes, but that pursuit of events have come at the cost of him putting himself at constant risk of foul trouble – as he’s averaged 4.9 personal fouls per 40 minutes, which have limited his playing time to just 22.8 minutes per game.
    • He ranks second on the team in defensive rating among rotation players[7].
  • Chargois plays disciplined post defense and is attentive to his boxout responsibilities but has a high center of gravity, which affects his ability to hold ground some.
    • He’s collected just 17.8% of opponents’ misses when he’s been on the floor this season.

[1] According to ESPN.com

[2] According to sports-reference

[3] DOB: 1/19/1999

[4] According to Southern Methodist

[5] According to hoop-math

[6] According to hoop-math

[7] According to sports-reference

READ MORE: Omari Spellman | Brady Manek | Jaren Jackson, Jr.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of ‘Basketball Scouting’. More of his work can be found here or at RealGM, where he is a regular contributor. He can be followed on twitter as @rafael_uehara

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Jarrey Foster Scouting Report

CONTEXT

  • Jarrey Foster was unranked in the 2015 high school class[1].
  • Through 19 games this season, the six-foot-six combo forward has averaged 16.3 points per 40 minutes on 53.8% true shooting and posted a 20.8 player efficiency rating[2].
  • Foster is a wing-sized player who has been forced to play most of his minutes as a big in college, at times even as a center. The 21-year-old[3] has shown he can certainly execute the scheme operating as the last line of defense but ultimately lacks the physical profile not to be a liability one-on-one against true behemoths.
  • On the other end, his meal ticket is going to be his shooting. The junior is having a relative down year but has proven he is able to make quick catch-and-shoot shots out of the pick-and-pop. His off dribble portfolio isn’t much yet but has proven to be effective against bigger players out in space.
  • He’s ranked 32nd on ESPN’s top 100.

EXECUTION

  • Foster is an intelligent defender operating as the last line of defense, attentive enough to:
    • Step up to the front of the rim to prevent the opponents from taking uncontested layups and dunks – Southern Methodist ranks 22nd in the country in lowest percentage of shots allowed at the basket[4];
    • Come off the weak-side to play above the rim as a shot blocker elevating off one foot – averaging 1.5 blocks per 40 minutes;
    • Rotating in to pick up the roll man – unable to go up strong off two feet to block shots but smart enough to raise his arms and wall off the front of the basket.
  • Foster is obviously mobile enough to guard pick-and-rolls above the foul line but has also shown quick thinking playing the angles and preventing the opposing ball handler from turning the corner whenever he could.

INDIVIDUAL DEFENSE

  • Foster bends his knees to get down in a stance and can slide multiple times to stay in front in individual defense against similarly sized players.
  • He doesn’t use the strength in his 220-pound frame[5] to contain penetration but can contest mid-range pull-ups somewhat effectively.
  • Against bigger players, Foster puts in the effort to front the post and is attentive to his boxout responsibilities but lacks reach to prevent the post entry over the top and struggles to clear these types of players out of his rebounding area.
    • He’s collected just 11.7% of opponents’ misses over his 616 minutes this season.
    • Given these weaknesses having to play out of position for the most part, Foster has the second worst defensive rating on the team among rotation players[6].

OFFENSE

  • Foster is not a volume outside shooter at this point – taking just 29.8% of his shots from three-point range and averaging just four such attempts per 40 minutes this season. But ultimately, that’s how he projects to produce the most on offense in the pros.
    • He has a fluid release with a reasonably quick trigger, dips for rhythm, has decent touch and often gets a nice arc in his shot.
    • Aside from basic spot-ups, Foster has also taken and made shots out of the pick-and-pop, able to set his feet quickly off a slip-screen.
    • He has nailed just 32.3% of his 62 three-point shots this season but 37.4% of his 174 such shots over his two-and-a-half year stay at Southern Methodist.
    • However, Foster has hit just 69.8% of his 53 foul shots this season and just 59.3% of his 177 such shots over his time in Dallas, raising legit concerns over how good of a shooter he is really.
  • Other than on spot-ups and out of the pick-and-pop, Foster has also gotten touches in the elbow out of a low horns set and on ball reversals. He is not particularly smooth putting the ball on the floor out of triple threat position, doesn’t have an explosive first step and has a loose handle but uses a few resources to get all the way to the basket off the bounce:
    • Shot fake to get his man out of position;
    • Strength to maintain his balance through contact;
    • Spin move to weave his way through traffic;
    • A high step to sustain his momentum forward.
      • Foster has taken 52.4% of his shots at the basket and, though he is not an explosive leaper off one foot, has finished these attempts at a 61.5% clip[7].
        • Partly because he can play above the rim as a target for lobs sneaking behind the defense on backdoor cuts and filling the lanes in transition, as 39 of his 67 makes at the basket have been assisted.
      • Foster can make adequate passes off the bounce on drive-and-kick’s and has also flashed excellent court vision making crosscourt passes out of the low post – assisting on 16.6% of Southern Methodist’s scores when he’s been on the floor this season.
      • He has power moves to burn smaller players on switches in the post.
      • He has also played with nice energy crashing the offensive glass – collecting 10.5% of Southern Methodist’s misses when he’s been in the game, though he lacks the lift off two feet to translate these second chances into immediate scores – converting his 23 putback attempts at a 46.2% clip.

[1] According to ESPN.com

[2] According to sports-reference

[3] DOB: 12/9/1996

[4] According to hoop-math

[5] According to Southern Methodist

[6] According to sports-reference

[7] According to hoop-math

READ MORE: Nik Slavica | Brady Manek | Wenyen Gabriel

EDITOR’S NOTE: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of ‘Basketball Scouting’. More of his work can be found here or at RealGM, where he is a regular contributor. He can be followed on twitter as @rafael_uehara

Omari Spellman Scouting Report

CONTEXT

  • Omari Spellman was the 18th-ranked prospect in the 2016 high school class[1].
  • Through 15 games this season, the six-foot-nine stretch big has averaged 16.3 points per 40 minutes on 54.8% effective shooting and 12.1 rebounds per 40 minutes[2].
  • The 20-year-old[3] is a multi-dimensional scorer who gets his touches in the post one-on-one and from three-point range on spot-ups and out of the pick-and-pop.
    • He’s taking about a third of his shots from each zone[4].
  • Spellman has a 245-pound frame[5] and iffy agility out in space. With that as the case, the red shirt freshman plays center on defense. He is not an explosive leaper but his length and general size around the basket have made him an effective interior defender.
  • He was not ranked on ESPN’s top 100 as of December, 12th.

POST GAME

  • Spellman has a large frame but doesn’t play with a lot of force looking to set up deep seals in the low block, as he seems more comfortable getting the ball in the mid-post instead.
  • But he does use his strength on power moves backing down less physically imposing opponents for looks within close range. He doesn’t get a lot of lift leaping off two feet and his touch on turnaround hooks is iffy.
  • Spellman has not yet shown a particularly diverse set of post moves working his man out of position with shot fakes, head fakes and spin moves. He doesn’t have particularly light feet either.
  • Spellman has shown a strong preference for catching, turning, facing, sizing up his man and jab-stepping before rising up for no-dribble jumpers over his defender. He gets good elevation and fully extends himself for a high release, aside from showing nice touch in his jumper for someone his size.
    • He’s nailed 45.2% of his 42 two-point jumpers this season.
  • Spellman has flashed a face-up drive if his defender plays up on him but lacks coordination and handle getting all the way to the basket in a position of strength.
  • He is yet to show much in terms of court vision passing out of the post – assisting on just 4.1% of Villanova’s scores over his 382 minutes.

SHOOTING

  • Spellman regularly spots-ups beyond the arc, freeing up the post for Jalen Brunson as Villanova inverts the offense. He catches the ball on the hop, gets more elevation than he perhaps should given his size, has a high release and shows good touch on his shot.
    • He’s nailed 46.5% of his 43 three-point shots, at a pace of 4.5 such looks per 40 minutes.
    • He’s also made 18 of his 26 free throws.
  • Spellman has shown some ability to make shots out of the pick-and-pop as well. He is a good screener who looks to make contact, can set his feet quickly and has a reasonably fluid release for someone his size.

FINISHING

  • Spellman can’t play above the rim as a target for lobs and usually pops to the three-point line or rolls into post-up position off ball-screens.
  • He isn’t an explosive leaper off two feet in traffic – converting his 41 shots at the basket at a 48.8% clip.
  • Spellman doesn’t play with a high motor and doesn’t have a quick second jump but can set inside position when he translates his size into toughness and has a seven-foot-two wingspan to rebound outside his area.
    • He’s collected 12.6% of Villanova’s misses when he’s been on the floor.
    • But lacking the explosiveness to go back up strong off two feet, he’s converted his 16 putback attempts at only a 40% clip.

DEFENSE

  • Spellman is not always attentive to his help-defense responsibilities rotating off the weak-side or stepping up to the front of the basket in rim protection. He also doesn’t play with a lot of energy looking to challenge everything he is close by. Despite his size, he doesn’t act as a deterrent.
  • But when well positioned, Spellman has been an effective interior defender thanks to his length and general size. Though he is not an explosive leaper, he has gone up to contest shots via verticality and has blocked shots in volume at the collegiate level – averaging 2.5 blocks per 40 minutes.
  • Spellman has plenty of strength to hold his ground in stout post defense but isn’t always attentive to his boxout responsibilities. He has a big rebounding area and decent instincts chasing the ball off the rim, though – collecting 22.6% of opponents’ misses when he’s been on the floor.
  • Villanova switches aggressive across all ball-screens and Spellman has found himself on smaller players every now and again. He bends his knees to get down enough in a stance but lacks lateral quickness to be an effective perimeter defender, unable slide multiple times to stay in front in isolation or cover a lot in a pinch recovering to block or contest shots from behind.
  • Spellman is asked to extend pick-and-roll coverage above the foul line often but isn’t suited for it, lacking agility out in space to act as anything more than a traffic cone.
  • He is also unable to closeout to the three-point line effectively, so he isn’t suited for guarding shooting big men either.
  • Spellman ranks second on the team in defensive rating among rotation players[6].

[1] According to ESPN.com

[2] According to sports-reference

[3] DOB: 7/21/1997

[4] According to hoop-math

[5] According to Villanova’s official listing

[6] According to sports-reference

READ MORE: Brady Manek | Wenyen Gabriel | Wendell Carter, Jr.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of ‘Basketball Scouting’. More of his work can be found here or at RealGM, where he is a regular contributor. He can be followed on twitter as @rafael_uehara

Brady Manek Scouting Report

CONTEXT

  • Brady Manek was not ranked in ESPN’s top 100 prospects of the 2017 high school class.
  • Through the first 14 games, the six-foot-nine stretch big has averaged 18.3 points per 40 minutes on jaw-dropping 65.6% effective shooting when you consider 60.7% of his shots have come from three-point range.
  • Manek is a sick shooter who has proven himself (in college) to be the most valuable type of gunner: the one able to make shots on the move and who can be deployed around the floor as a valuable chess piece that provides spacing for his teammates wherever he is close by.
    • Other than that, the freshman hasn’t done much of anything else on offense, though.
  • On the other end, Manek isn’t very strong yet, doesn’t impress with his quickness or leaping ability and doesn’t appear to have above average length. But he is nimble enough to rotate in help defense adequately and has flashed good recognition skills making these rotations effectively.
  • The 19-year-old was not ranked in ESPN’s top 100 as of December, 12th.

SHOOTING

  • Manek is an exceptional shooter who does nice preparation on spot-ups catching the ball on the hop, launches his shot from a high point and has a very quick release – not just for someone his size but overall.
  • Oklahoma leverages his quick trigger having him take shots on the move; relocating around the wing on roll-and-replace and in the pick-and-pop or as the back-screener on Spain pick-and-rolls, aside from flashing to the foul line for turnaround jump-shots against the zone.
  • He’s nailed 42.6% of his 68 three-point shots this season, at a pace of 8.1 such attempts per 40 minutes[1].
    • Manek has missed six of his 13 foul shots, which puts his free throw shooting at 53.8% but I think we can chalk that up to small sample.

OTHER AREAS OF OFFENSE

  • Manek doesn’t have an explosive first step, advanced ball skills or a lot of strength in his thin 215-pound frame to maintain his balance through contact and get all the way to the basket or the foul line attacking closeouts.
    • 17 of his 25 makes at the rim have been assisted[2].
    • He’s averaged 1.5 foul shots per 40 minutes.
  • He is also yet to show much of anything in terms of an in-between game putting the ball on the floor and cutting his drives short for stop-and-pop or step-back fade-away jumpers and running floaters or floaters off jump-stops.
    • Just 9.1% of his shots have come from mid-range.
  • Manek hasn’t shown to be able to pass on the move and Oklahoma doesn’t run an offense where he gets the ball in the elbows or the high post.
    • Assisting on just 4.1% of Oklahoma’s scores over his 336 minutes.
  • His role is to spot-up beyond the arc, so he hasn’t gotten the ball in the post and hasn’t crashed the offensive glass.
  • He can’t play above the rim as a target for lobs or hang and adjust his body in the air for acrobatic finishes. He is also not an explosive leaper going up off two feet in traffic but has shown good touch around the basket.
    • Converting his 33 shots within close range at a 75.8% clip.

DEFENSE

  • Manek is fairly agile and combines his mobility with good recognition skills to act as an effective help-defender:
    • Stepping up to the front of the basket as the last line of defense and challenging shots or drawing charges;
      • He doesn’t have particularly impressive lift but has averaged 1.5 blocks per 40 minutes.
    • Making preventing rotations to keep the ball-handler from getting to the rim in the first place;
    • Pinning the ball handler to the baseline in side pick-and-rolls.
  • Manek hunches, rather than bend his knees, getting down in a stance but has shown decent lateral quickness sliding to stay in front of stretch big men taking him off the bounce, though he lacks strength to contain dribble penetration.
  • Despite his mobility, he doesn’t project as an asset to pick up smaller players on switches out on an island or extend pick-and-roll coverage too far beyond the foul line.
  • Manek hasn’t shown an inclination to get physical clearing his area and can get pushed out of his spots at times due to his lack of strength but has been an adequate defensive rebounder so far, attentive to his boxout responsibilities and pursuing the ball off the rim with good enough quickness.
    • He’s collected 18.1% of opponents’ misses when he’s been on the floor.
  • He ranks third on the team in defensive rating among rotation players[3].

[1] According to sports-reference

[2] According to hoop-math

[3] According to sports-reference

READ MORE: Wenyen Gabriel | Mohamed Bamba | Daniel Theis

EDITOR’S NOTE: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of ‘Basketball Scouting’. More of his work can be found here or at RealGM, where he is a regular contributor. He can be followed on twitter as @rafael_uehara

Wenyen Gabriel Scouting Report

CONTEXT

  • Wenyen Gabriel was the 14th-ranked prospect in the 2016 high school class[1] but struggled to earn a prominent role in his first year at Kentucky – averaging just 17.7 minutes per game as a freshman.
  • As a sophomore, the six-foot-nine energy big has been a more meaningful contributor – averaging 22.8 minutes per game through his first 14 appearances and finishing a few close games.
  • Gabriel does not participate in the shot creation process, other than setting ball-screens, and Kentucky does not leverage his athleticism enough in terms of setting him up for lob finishes. But he’s managed to carry his weight on offense by spacing the floor out to the three-point line and battling for second chances in the offensive glass.
  • His biggest impact is on the other end. The 20-year-old[2] leverages his length and quickness into creating events making plays in the passing lanes and in help-defense, while also doing well when stressed out in space, offering his coach flexibility on how to defend the pick-and-roll.
    • The native of South Sudan still struggles with the most physical aspects of the game, though.
  • I might be in the minority seeing him as a potential star role player. He’s not ranked on ESPN’s top 100.

DEFENSE

  • Gabriel has excellent agility for someone his size, which makes him an asset to pick up smaller players on switches. He can bend his knees to get down in a stance, slide laterally several times to stay attached stride-for-stride and use his length to effectively contest or intimidate shots at the rim.
  • Gabriel is also quick enough to defend shooting big men in the pick-and-pop, able to cover a lot of ground in a pinch going from preventing the ball handler from turning the corner right away and then closing out effectively to the shooter at the three-point line.
  • He’s been a proactive help-defender coming off the weak-side and can get off the ground in a split-second off one or two feet to protect the basket – averaging 2.4 blocks per 40 minutes[3] this season.
    • He’s also proven himself a willing to draw charges.
  • Gabriel has a six-foot-11 wingspan[4] to clog up passing lanes and reach around to strip the opponent of the ball one-on-one – averaging 1.9 steals per 40 minutes this season.
  • Thanks to the fact he’s created events in volume, Gabriel has the best defensive rating on the team among rotation players[5].
  • He is attentive to his boxout responsibilities and has held his ground in the post competently at times but Gabriel has a thin 205-pound frame in the context of his six-foot-nine height and a lot of room to improve his general toughness.
    • He’s collected just 17.7% of opponents’ misses in his 297 minutes.

OFFENSE

  • Gabriel has a fluid stroke on his catch-and-shoot three-pointer and a reasonably quick release for someone who is not a pure shooter. He is mostly only a capable open shot set shooter at this point of his development but has also flashed the ability to set his feet quickly and take shots out of the pick-and-pop, though his free throw percentage gives you some pause.
    • After hitting 31.7% of his 63 three-point attempts last season, he’s nailed 42.4% of his 33 such shots through the first 14 games this season, at a pace of 4.1 three-point looks per 40 minutes.
    • But he’s only hit 60% of his 80 foul shots through his year-and-a-half at Kentucky, including 56% of his 25 free throws this season.
  • He struggles when forced to put the ball on the floor attacking a closeout, which he does way too much for someone with his combination of loose handle, clumsiness with the ball and lack of core strength maintaining his balance and his momentum forward through contact.
    • He’s turned it over on 16% of his possessions, which is too high for someone with his 14.6% usage rate and 5% assist rate.
  • Kentucky rarely has him diving hard to the basket in the pick-and-roll.
    • Combining this and his inability to get all to the goal off the dribble, he’s taken just 26.4% of his live ball attempts at the rim and four of his 10 makes have been putbacks[6].
  • Gabriel is unable to get a deep seal in the post, even against wings.
  • Opponents can’t just switch smaller players onto him without consequence, though. He plays with a high motor and crashes the offensive glass. Despite taking 45.8% of his shots from three-point range, Gabriel has collected 10% of Kentucky’s misses when he’s been on the floor.
  • He struggles with this touch on non-dunk finishes around length protecting the basket – converting just 52.6% of his 19 shots at the rim.

[1] According to ESPN.com

[2] DOB: 3/26/1997

[3] According to sports-reference

[4] According to the measurements at the Kentucky Combine

[5] According to sports-reference

[6] According to hoop-math

READ MORE: Marvin Bagley, III | Jaren Jackson, Jr.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of ‘Basketball Scouting’. More of his work can be found here or at RealGM, where he is a regular contributor. He can be followed on twitter as @rafael_uehara

Marvin Bagley, III Scouting Report

CONTEXT

Even though he was a late addition, not making his decision to reclassify and join the team this year until mid-August, Duke wasted no time incorporating Marvin Bagley III and making him their center of gravity on offense. He leads the team in usage-rate among rotation players, at 26.8%[1], and getting him the ball tends to be the Duke’s priority on every other possession.

Though he projects as a center in the pros, the six-foot-11, 234-pounder has played just about every minute this season with another true big man in the lineup. As a result, opponents have matched up their stronger big on the pure center and often designated lighter, smaller types to guard Bagley III, which Duke has consistently viewed as an opportunity to explore getting him to work mostly below the foul line.

They haven’t been proven wrong at this level yet, given they’ve won 11 of 12 games so far and the lefty is averaging 27.3 points per 40 minutes on 63.5% effective shooting.

He hasn’t had much opportunity to dive to the basket in pick-and-roll, though, and a lot of the interest in him as a pro prospect surrounds his potential as both a lob finisher and an outside shooter — which hasn’t advanced much, in large part because he is not asked to space the floor a whole lot.

Defensively, the 18-year-old[2] impresses in instances where activity is required of him, which is what to be expected given his remarkable athletic prowess. His defensive box plus minus is positive.

But he needs to develop in more subtle aspects of the game like being more attentive to his boxout responsibilities, acting as a deterrent as the last line of defense and controlling the action in front of him in the pick-and-roll – areas that will become more important when he moves up a level and can no longer solely rely on his athleticism to make a difference.

POST OFFENSE

Bagley III lacks strength to establish a deep seal in the low post, even against switches, and gets consistently pushed further out to just inside the arc. That hasn’t stopped him from putting up the shots he is best at right now, though, whether it’s facing up or with his back to the basket.

He doesn’t have power moves and hasn’t yet shown much dexterity in terms of being able to work his defender patiently with shot-fakes or head-fakes but his feet are light and his touch is tremendous, so his turnaround lefty hooks, while somewhat simplistic, have been very effective.

That said, his go-to move in college has been looking to drive past opposing big men. He is getting the ball in the elbow a ton. His handle is rudimentary at this point of his development, as he is prone to getting the ball stripped in traffic and hasn’t shown much side-to-side shake. But Bagley III has long strides, a spin move and a euro-step to get all the way to the basket more often than not.

At the rim, he hasn’t yet shown much flexibility to hang or adjust his body in the air but is an explosive leaper off one-foot (even in traffic), uses his length well to over-extend and has great touch to score around rim protectors – converting his 91 layup/dunk attempts at a 79.1% clip[3], with 32 of his 72 makes unassisted, at a pace of 3.4 unassisted makes at the rim per 40 minutes.

And against defenders who have managed to stay attached to him or prevent him from taking it to the goal comfortably, Bagley III has even flashed a running floater to score from the in-between area and some ability to make a drop-off or a kick-out on the move – assisting on a not awesome but decent 8.3% of Duke’s scores when he’s been on the floor.

OTHER AREAS OF OFFENSE

Duke doesn’t have him diving hard to the basket a whole lot in pick-and-roll but Bagley III has proven he can play above the rim as a target for lobs.

When he has set high ball-screens, almost always slip screens, his priority has mostly been rolling into post position or popping to a spot in the perimeter for a catch-and-shoot jumper, though.

Bagley III is yet to take meaningful steps forward to prove himself a credible threat as an outside shooter, nailing just eight assisted two-point jumpers and eight three-point shots this season.

Some of the types of shots he’s hit sporadically, a step-in three-pointer as the trailer in the secondary break and quick trigger bombs in the pick-and-pop, still make you hopeful for the sort of shooter he could become with some encouragement.

But other than isolating, Bagley III’s most significant contribution has been on the offensive glass, where he puts his explosive leaping ability to work going up to get the ball at a higher point than his opponents, also possessing a quick second jump to go back up strong and fight for tip-ins or 50-50 balls – collecting 13% of Duke’s misses when he’s been on the floor this season and converting his 26 putback attempts at an 81.8% clip.

DEFENSE

He struggles to hold ground in the post and isn’t very disciplined attending to his boxout responsibilities, though he’s managed to collect 24.1% of opponents’ misses in his 375 minutes thanks to the same attributes that make him effective on the offensive glass.

But his biggest issue has been in pick-and-roll defense.

Bagley III excels picking up smaller players on switches out in space, as he’s able to get down in a stance and slide laterally well enough to keep pace with them on straight line drives in order to intimidate or effectively contest shots.

But when he is asked to drop back, Bagley III always seems kind of lost. He hasn’t yet learned how to control the action in front of him, in terms of finding the right mix between backpedalling to prioritize preventing the ball handler from getting downhill but not giving away so much space that he has such an easy pull-up that most guys at the highest level of college ball can make. Boston College really succeeded in exploring this gap in his game, as it sought to put him in pick-and-roll time and time again in the second half of last week’s upset.

As the last line of defense, Bagley III is yet to develop into a help-defender who can protect the rim by making preventive rotations that keep the dribble driver from getting to the basket in the first place but has shown in bits and pieces that he has room to become that sort of player down the line, especially given his quickness.

Differently than he had shown in high school, Bagley is yet to translate his athleticism into making an impact as a shot blocker, though, which is putting into question his ability to anchor a defense at the next level, as chronicled by The Ringer’s Jonathan Tjarks today.

[1] According to sports-reference

[2] DOB: 3/14/1999

[3] According to hoop-math

Editor’s Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of ‘Basketball Scouting’. More of his work can be found here or at RealGM, where he is a regular contributor. He can be followed on twitter as @rafael_uehara

Jaren Jackson, Jr. Scouting Report

CONTEXT

Jaren Jackson, Jr. is very likely to end up a top 10 pick next draft.

The Michigan State big man already looked great on paper, possessing elite measurements and only turning 19 next September, but has still managed to compound the interest in him by doing great on the court as well.

He has impressed many over the first month of the season, proving himself to be a very effective rim protector while showing flashes of three-point range on the other end. In a time every team is looking for a big who can simultaneously space the floor and be a plus of some sort on defense, Jackson, Jr. should be highly regarded.

He projects as someone who should spend a lot of minutes at center on five-out lineups that stretch the opposing defense to its breaking point but that hasn’t yet been the case. Jackson, Jr. has played almost all of his minutes at Michigan State with another true big man in the lineup as well, with the only exception I’ve seen so far being a couple minutes against Southern Utah on Saturday.

The Spartans run a lot of stuff that is mid-post oriented, with the wings sprinting around down screens for catches on the side of the floor or the big men facilitating from the elbow, but there have also been plenty of opportunities for Jackson, Jr. to screen for pick-and-pops and space out to the three-point line as a weak-side spot-up shooter. He’s also gotten the ball with his back to the basket some.

Jackson, Jr. is supposed to be a finisher of possessions, whether it’s at the rim, from three-point range or on emergency post-ups late in the clock, but his 24.3% usage rate[1] is quite robust for someone whose role is not to put up a lot of shots and has provided a good chance to get a decent feel for the things he does well or needs to improve on at this point of his development.

Defensively, Michigan State consistently has him on the lighter of the opposing big men. He is currently listed at 242 pounds, some 17 pounds heavier than he weighed at the Nike Hoop Summit, but is yet to show a whole lot of reliability in terms of engaging in the most physical aspects of the game.

Jackson, Jr. has proven himself to be an exceptional asset in areas more related to movement and activity, though. His combination of nimbleness for someone his size and length were already very appealing on paper but he’s translated them into production in pick-and-roll defense extending far beyond the foul line and in help defense by playing with the sort of intensity you don’t necessarily see from guys with his physical attributes.

[1] According to our stats’ database

(Check the rest of the post at RealGM)